2025 NCRC Mortgage Market Series
Mortgage Market Series
Our 2024 HMDA analysis series unpacks powerful trends in mortgage access, costs, and equity—revealing who’s gaining ground, who’s being left behind, and why transparent, local-level data matters more than ever.
PART 1
Introduction to Mortgage Market Trends
rising non-bank influence, shifting loan purposes, disparities in access by race, and how these trends shape who gets to buy a home in America today
PART 2
Lending Trends by Borrower and Neighborhood Characteristics
As the Mortgage Market Stabilizes, Gaps in Access for Low-Income and Black Borrowers Widen
PART 3
Native American and Hawaiian Lending
Native and Hawaiian communities face unique homeownership barriers worsened by investor pressure and shrinking federal support
Series Introduction
Methods and Definitions
Data Sources
Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) Data: Primary data source covering national mortgage lending patterns from 2018-2024, representing approximately 88% of all mortgage applications processed annually
US Census Bureau Data: Used for demographic information, population statistics, and income data including the American Community Survey and Decennial Census data
Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) Data: Source for HMDA data collection and release
Brookings Institution Research: Referenced for demographic projections and population growth analysis
Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council: Source for HMDA data products
Analysis Period and Scope
Time Frame: 2018-2024
Loan Types Analyzed: Focus on home purchase loans for owner-occupied, site-built, 1-4 unit properties except as noted
Data Processing Methods
Race/Ethnicity Calculation: Detailed subgroup identification method that prioritizes specific ethnic codes (11-14 for Hispanic subgroups, 21-27 for Asian subgroups, 41-44 for Pacific Islander subgroups) over broader categories
Missing Data Treatment: “No Data” loans excluded from demographic calculations rather than treated as a separate racial category
Year-over-Year Comparisons: Multi-year data compared using identical calculation methods across the 2018-2024 period
Key Metrics and Definitions
Low- and Moderate-Income Borrower (LMIB): Borrowers with household income below 80% of area median income
Low- and Moderate-Income Census Tract (LMICT): Geographic areas where median family income is at or below 80% of metro area median family income
Majority-Minority Census Tract (MMCT): Census tracts where racial/ethnic minorities comprise more than 50% of residents
Cost Per Dollar: Calculated as (Total Payments Over 30 Years + Closing Costs) ÷ Original Loan Amount
Market Share: Percentage of total loans in a market originated by a specific lender
Calculation Formulas
Percentage Calculations:
- Low and moderate-income borrower percentages: (LMIB/Total Loans) × 100
- LMI Tract percentages: (LMICT/Total Loans) × 100
- Majority-minority tract percentages: (MMCT/Total Loans) × 100
- Race and ethnicity percentages: (Race group/(Total Loans-No Data)) × 100
Data Quality and Limitations
Coverage Limitations: Analysis limited to loans with reported demographic data (approximately 4.7 million of 5.3 million total loans in 2024)
Census Boundary Changes: 2020 Census redrew neighborhood boundaries, affecting historical comparisons for majority-minority tract analysis starting in 2022
Missing Data Impact: Growing number of loans without demographic data affects trend analysis accuracy
Multiracial Identity Challenges: Difficulty measuring lending equity for people identifying as multiple races
Terms
AAPI – Asian American and Pacific Islander: Demographic label that groups together Asian and Pacific Islander communities
AHO – Access to Home Ownership: Office of Hawaiian Affairs program that guarantees portions of home loans for Native Hawaiian first-time homebuyers
CDFI – Community Development Financial Institution: Specialized lenders focused on serving underserved communities
CFPB – Consumer Financial Protection Bureau: Federal agency that oversees mortgage lending and consumer financial protection
CRA – Community Reinvestment Act: Federal law requiring banks to meet credit needs of their entire communities, especially low-income areas
FHA – Federal Housing Administration: Government agency that insures mortgages
GSE – Government-Sponsored Enterprise: Companies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that buy mortgages from lenders
HMDA – Home Mortgage Disclosure Act: Federal law requiring lenders to report detailed mortgage lending data
HoPI – Hawaiian or Pacific Islander: Demographic category for Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander populations
HUD – US Department of Housing and Urban Development: Federal agency that oversees housing programs
IHBG – Indian Housing Block Grant: Federal program funding housing development on tribal lands
LEI – Legal Entity Identifier: Unique identification code for financial institutions
LMI – Low- and Moderate-Income: People or areas with incomes at or below 80% of area median income
LMIB – Low and Moderate-Income Borrower: Borrowers with incomes below 80% of area median income
LMICT – Low- and Moderate-Income Census Tract: Geographic areas where median incomes fall below 80% of regional average
MIP – Mortgage Insurance Premium: Monthly fee paid by FHA borrowers to protect lenders against default
MMCT – Majority-Minority Census Tract: Neighborhoods where racial/ethnic minorities make up more than 50% of residents
RHS – Rural Housing Service: USDA program providing housing assistance in rural areas
VA – Veterans Affairs: Government department that provides benefits to military veterans, including mortgage guarantees
YoY – Year-over-Year: Comparison between the same period in consecutive years
The Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data is collected and released each year by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). This dataset offers unparalleled details about 88% of the mortgage applications processed each year. This information is critical for any regulator, advocate or lender that wants to understand the market. Data of this kind promotes fair and efficient markets.
This series of research briefs will offer a deep analysis of this data and help policymakers, the general public and National Community Reinvestment Coalition (NCRC) members understand current mortgage market trends at the local level. There are a great number of topics that this data will help us explore via a series of episodes with easy to understand reports, policy suggestions, videos, data visualizations and maps. These insights can help various organizations and market actors to utilize this data to support fair lending programs and initiatives in their communities.
There were several key takeaways and findings in the 2024 HMDA data that we will discuss in future episodes. This introduction and summary will be updated as new episodes in this series are published.
Key Takeaways
- Declining Low-Income Access: Lending to low- and moderate-income borrowers fell to 14.2% in 2024 (the lowest level since 2018), reflecting severe affordability challenges.
- Hispanic Market Growth: Hispanic borrowers now exceed their population share in mortgage lending, reaching 17.7% of home purchase loans in 2024.
- Persistent Black Homeownership Gap: Black borrower participation remains stagnant at 8.9% (well below their 11.7% share of the adult population), with declining shares in major metro areas.
- Less-Regulated Lenders Displacing Banks: Mortgage companies and credit unions – whose lending activity is not covered by key economic opportunity laws like the Community Reinvestment Act – have greatly expanded their share of lending. Mortgage companies are making ⅔ of home purchase loans in 2024. Credit unions are now making more cash out refinance loans than banks and hold nearly the same share of the home equity market that banks do, without the oversight offered by the CRA..
Key Findings
Access and Affordability
Low- and moderate-income (LMI) home purchase lending continues its long decline, now at just 25.8% of all home purchases on owner occupied, 1-4 unit site built homes. Upper income borrowers dominate homebuying, even in LMI and majority minority census tracts.
Demographic Shifts
Hispanic borrowers continue to expand their market presence, and in 2024 for the first time on record were slightly over-represented in home purchase lending relative to overall population share. 17.7% of loan originations in 2024 went to a Hispanic borrower, exceeding the 16.8% percent of the overall adult population who identify as Hispanic. In contrast, the Black borrower share of the market remains well below their population representation (8.9%), with declines in key markets like Atlanta, Houston and Washington, DC.
